Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 215,000, Beating Forecasts

Weekly jobless claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, the Labor Department said Thursday, down 2,000 from the prior week's total, which was revised up to 217,000. The reading came in a touch below what forecasters had penciled in, another sign that layoffs remain rare even as hiring has slowed.

In Brief

• Initial claims: 215,000 for the week ending July 4, down 2,000 from a revised 217,000
• Forecasts had ranged from 217,000 to 220,000 across FactSet, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg surveys
• Four week moving average dropped to 218,750, a decline of 3,750
• Continuing claims rose to 1.81 million for the week ending June 27, up 8,000
• Unadjusted claims climbed close to 10,000, driven almost entirely by California

What This Week's Weekly Jobless Claims Report Shows

The headline number landed just under what economists expected. FactSet's panel had forecast 220,000 new filings, the Wall Street Journal's survey pointed to 218,000, and Bloomberg's economists had guessed 217,000. The actual print of 215,000 suggests employers are still holding onto workers even as other parts of the labor market show strain.

The four week moving average, which smooths out the week to week noise, fell to 218,750. That average has stayed in a fairly narrow band for months, reinforcing the idea that layoffs simply have not accelerated in any broad way.

Continuing Claims and the Unadjusted Numbers

Continuing claims, which count people still receiving benefits, ticked up to 1.81 million for the week ending June 27, an increase of 8,000. Even with that uptick, the level remains historically low by past standards.

On an unadjusted basis, claims rose by nearly 10,000, and Bloomberg's data show California alone accounted for almost all of that jump. A year earlier, the comparable unadjusted figure stood at 241,361, giving some sense of how filings have shifted over the past twelve months.

A Labor Market Described as Low Hire, Low Fire

The claims data arrive shortly after a soft June jobs report, which showed employers adding just 57,000 nonfarm payroll positions, well under the 115,000 that analysts had projected. The unemployment rate slipped from 4.3% to 4.2%, but much of that dip came from people leaving the workforce rather than landing jobs. Revisions to April and May also cut a combined 74,000 jobs from what had originally been reported.

Analysts have taken to calling the current environment